Waves in the crypto ocean

Market cast 

The fundamentals before Bitcoin 

Bitcoin’s rally gained momentum following Trump’s US strategic reserve announcement on Sunday, briefly pushing BTC higher. While it has since pulled back toward the lower end of last week’s range, the latest weekly candle on the BTC/USDT chart suggests potential for a bullish continuation, with further confirmation awaited. All eyes are set on Friday’s Fed chair Powell’s speech. 

With technical indicators largely neutral, Bitcoin’s direction this week will likely be driven by broader market sentiment and fundamental news. On the upside, a weekly close above $94,000 would signal strong long-term bullish sentiment and could push BTC toward a new all-time high. Conversely, without supportive news, Bitcoin could slide back to the recent low of $78,000 – or even test support near $72,500.U.S. stocks have turned lower amid looming tariff concerns, and the brief boost from Trump’s crypto reserve announcement has currently diminished. Meanwhile, spot bitcoin ETFs reversed an eight-day outflow streak, pulling in $94.3 million on Feb. 28 after shedding over $3.2 billion during the downturn, visible in the chart below.

The big idea

The Trump effect(s) on crypto markets

It’s been a busy week of price action and market re-adjustment. Volatility, like a ship in open seas, was buoyed by Donald Trump’s tariff-driven tough talk, only to pivot when he unveiled a bold new move – a strategic crypto reserve. As Nexo Co-Founder Antoni Trenchev explained in a CNBC interview, the Trump administration cares deeply about crypto. During such periods of recalibration, access to liquidity – whether through lending, borrowing, or strategic portfolio management—becomes particularly relevant. Here is what happened:

Trump’s Crypto Reserve announcement

Markets sprang into action over the weekend when Trump announced plans for a “Crypto Strategic Reserve” featuring Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano – with BTC and ETH at its core. This move aims to boost U.S. financial clout, reshape global regulatory debates, and enhance liquidity. Over a dozen states are already exploring crypto reserve strategies, echoing the nation’s growing digital asset integration. 

Regulatory developments in the U.S.

Legislative momentum is picking up, with U.S. policymakers forging a more structured regulatory path for digital assets. The launch of a bipartisan Congressional Crypto Caucus, along with debates over stablecoin frameworks and market structure reforms, signals a strong push toward cementing U.S. leadership in fintech.

Despite an initial surge, the impact of these announcements is still in flux – Bitcoin, for example, spiked above $94,000 before briefly pulling back below $80,000. Yet it’s not just crypto markets feeling uncertain — traditional indices slumped too. The S&P 500 fell 1.76% on Monday to 5,849.72, its worst day since December, while the Dow and Nasdaq also tumbled amid looming tariffs. Dispatch editors spoke about these movements with leading media outlets – from the market bottom and the market reversal to the emergence of the Texas Strategic Bitcoin reserve. Similar episodes highlight the importance of effective liquidity management—particularly for investors looking to adjust exposure without liquidating assets. In fast-moving markets, having the ability to borrow against holdings or deploy capital efficiently can be a key advantage, whether to hedge risks or capitalize on market swings.

As major cryptocurrencies approach critical levels, investors are increasingly looking at strategies that preserve their core positions while maintaining flexibility. The ability to unlock liquidity without selling assets is becoming an essential tool for navigating a dynamic financial landscape.

Stablecoins

A stablecoin star in the making?

You simply know that stablecoins are in the spotlight when Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan expresses optimism about dollar-backed stablecoins. Until now, BoA hasn’t been able to utilize stablecoins, yet the bank is ready to “go into that business” with its “Bank of America coin.”

With the stablecoin market already valued at over $230 billion, regulatory progress could unlock even greater potential. Moreover, Ripple’s launch of the RLUSD stablecoin, after NYDFS approval, further highlights the momentum in this space. Crypto analyst ZachXBT pointed out that the circulation of stablecoins is a vital metric for assessing blockchain legitimacy, while Cardano’s Frederik Gregaard noted that networks are poised to attract more major issuers as their capabilities expand.

XRP

It’s simple distribution

XRP dazzled the crypto community with a 34% rally on March 2 after news of its potential inclusion in a U.S. strategic reserve. However, it retraced most of its gains, but what could be the explanation? A natural distribution phase, it seems, according to CryptoQuant –  a period where token holdings are realigned as part of market recalibration rather than a sell-off. “This is one of the most pronounced distribution phases we’ve seen,” noted founder Ki-Young Ju, underscoring that the current market activity is about strategic rebalancing.

Macroeconomic round up

It’s all about the Fed talk

Macroeconomics have strengthened their grip on crypto assets. Here is what to watch for this week:

• ADP Employment Report (Wed): Expected at 143,000. A strong report may boost the USD and pressure BTC; a weak print could fuel Fed cuts and lift BTC.
• Initial Jobless Claims (Thu): Forecast around 243,000. Lower claims signal strength; higher claims could push investors toward safe-haven BTC.
• US Unemployment (Fri): Forecast 160,000 new jobs and a 4.1% rate. Robust data may dampen rate cut hopes; disappointing figures could support BTC.
• Jerome Powell’s Speech (Fri): All eyes on Powell for monetary policy clues. A dovish tone might weaken the dollar and boost appetite for BTC.

The week’s most interesting data story

BTC spikes in address activity

Bitcoin’s active addresses have surged to over 912,300 at the end of February to mark a three-month high that may signal a reversal moment. Glassnode data shows this level hasn’t been seen since December 16, 2024, hinting that selling might be over. Crypto intelligence platform IntoTheBlock also shares the opinion on X.

The numbers

Top 5 stats of the week

• 440 million XRP – XRP whales increased their holdings by nearly $1 billion, following Monday’s market decline.
• $6.8 million –The profit on one Bitcoin long position just before Trump’s announcement.
• $500,000 – Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick revisits Bitcoin’s target amid market dips.
• 17.5% – Bitcoin’s February slump is the biggest loss since 2022.
• $150,000 – The latest year-end BTC prediction by Nexo’s Antoni Trenchev.

Hot topics

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected]