Dispatch #240: Bitcoin’s bounce: rally or reflex

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• XRP leads the pack
• The Fed’s next step
• Strike-price forces

Market cast 

Bitcoin mixed on weekly, bullish on daily

A range of momentum indicators—RSI, MACD, and the Stochastic oscillator—are sending mixed signals on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. The RSI is neutral, and the MACD remains below its signal line—suggesting bearish pressure. However, the Stochastic oscillator is breaking out of oversold territory, hinting at a potential bullish reversal. If momentum builds, a test of the $86,500 resistance is likely, near the Bollinger Bands’ midline. Beyond that, the next key zone lies at $90,000–$91,000.

On the daily chart, momentum looks stronger. The MACD has flipped bullish with a signal line crossover, and while the RSI is neutral, the Stochastic is nearing overbought—supporting short-term upside.

To the downside, initial support is seen at $84,000, followed by $82,500 and the more structurally important $80,000 level. A break below these zones would shift the focus back to a defensive posture.

The big idea

A bumpy road for Bitcoin – but with tailwinds

Last week, we spoke of navigating the fog—markets were volatile, macro signals blurred, and crypto was searching for direction. Now, the outlines are coming into view. Two dominant forces are setting the tone: central bank policy and trade dynamics. Both introduce short-term headwinds, but they may also lay the groundwork for long-term upside in digital assets like Bitcoin.

Macro hurdles, mixed impacts

Despite signs of cooling growth, policymakers are holding off on rate cuts, pointing to persistent inflation risks—especially from global supply chains and tariffs. Fed official Goolsbee reiterated the Fed’s “wait-and-see” stance, with cuts now more likely in 2025.

Meanwhile, the revival of trade barriers—spearheaded by President Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese EVs and a broader protectionist tone—raises the risk of stagflation. But while higher import costs can weigh on growth and consumer prices, tariffs also reinforce an emerging theme: monetary fragmentation. As global trade becomes less predictable and currency blocs more fractured, the appeal of neutral, borderless assets like Bitcoin grows stronger.

Even the market’s positive response to a temporary 90-day suspension of certain tariffs reflects this tension: investors are adapting to a world of shifting rules and looking for anchors outside traditional systems.

Despite the macro noise, Bitcoin is gaining relevance. It’s evolving from a risk asset to a structural one. Three tailwinds are worth watching:

Liquidity’s potential pivot
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon has warned that volatility in the Treasury market could force the Fed to intervene sooner than planned. Bitcoin’s historical sensitivity to global liquidity conditions means it could be among the first to respond if monetary easing resumes. As Arthur Hayes frames it: “We are about to enter UP ONLY mode.“

A softer Dollar supports Bitcoin
According to ETF-issuer Bitwise, the Trump administration’s implicit aim of a weaker dollar could be a tailwind for BTC. Historically, Bitcoin has outperformed during periods of USD weakness, as investors hedge against currency debasement and lean into decentralized alternatives.

Structural momentum is building
From humanitarian aid to national reserves, Bitcoin is gaining traction. The Human Rights Foundation’s Bitcoin Humanitarian Alliance is expanding BTC’s use as a tool for civil liberties. In Sweden, a parliament member is advocating for the state to hold Bitcoin, sourced from confiscated assets. These developments aren’t noise—they’re signs of institutional and ideological adoption.

Even with tariffs and rates shaping the headlines, Bitcoin continues to evolve beneath the surface. It’s becoming a strategic asset—a reflection of global liquidity, a hedge against policy uncertainty, and a candidate for tomorrow’s reserve frameworks.

Hot in crypto

XRP’s bulls lead the pack

XRP has been one of the top performers this past week, gaining nearly 20% to trade above $2.10. Technically, the token has found support above $1.93, with resistance looming near $2.09, reports leading outlet Benzinga. A close above $2.04 could open the door to $2.38, while a pullback to $1.65 might present a tempting entry for spot buyers.

Fueling the rally are two big developments. First, Teucrium’s 2x Long Daily XRP ETF (XXRP)—the first leveraged XRP product in the U.S.—launched with a bang, recording $5 million in first-day volume and ranking among the firm’s most successful ETF debuts. Adding to the bullish momentum, Standard Chartered initiated coverage on XRP with a bold $12.50 price target by 2028—more than 500% above current levels. The bank sees XRP overtaking Ethereum in market cap, powered by its growing role in cross-border payments, tokenization of real-world assets, and a more crypto-friendly U.S. regulatory outlook.

TradFi trends

Crypto forces in play

BlackRock brought in $3 billion in digital asset inflows during Q1 2025, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum weathered one of their toughest quarters. The inflows came as part of a blockbuster start to the year for the asset manager, which saw $84 billion in total net flows—$107 billion of which came from its iShares ETF lineup alone.

CEO Larry Fink described it as BlackRock’s “best start to a year since 2021.” Digital assets still represent just 0.5% of the firm’s $11.6 trillion portfolio, but the momentum is clear: TradFi’s biggest name is getting increasingly comfortable with crypto.

Macroeconomic round up

Will the Fed step up?

Boston Fed President Susan Collins has made it clear: the U.S. central bank is fully prepared to step in if markets become disorderly. 

While Collins noted that current liquidity levels appear healthy, her remarks carry weight—she’s a voting member of this year’s FOMC. 

Meanwhile, this week’s key U.S. data points added more color to the macro picture:

• Retail Sales (Wed): March data showed softer-than-expected consumer activity, raising questions about growth momentum. Weak sales could fuel renewed interest in Bitcoin and other decentralized assets as investors brace for a slowdown.
• Fed Chair Powell’s Speech (Wed): A key event for market direction. With Fed officials signaling caution, Powell’s tone will be closely parsed. The speech’s timing, just after the retail sales release, could amplify volatility in rate-sensitive assets.
• Initial Jobless Claims (Thu): Claims ticked up to 223,000, suggesting early signs of labor market softening. A further rise could stoke recession fears—and with that, more inflows into Bitcoin as a store of value.

Blockchain

Blockchain votes for the win

New York could soon turn to blockchain to safeguard its elections. Assembly member Clyde Vanel has introduced a bill that would launch a full-blown study into using the tech to protect voter records and ensure election results can’t be tampered with. The bill praises blockchain’s security and transparency—qualities that could help rebuild trust in the system. If passed, the state’s Board of Elections will have a year to investigate and report back. It’s the latest move in a broader push: from USAID to China’s credit data systems, blockchain is quietly becoming a go-to fix for public trust and data integrity. Could it become the backbone of democracy – on top of being the century’s boldest wealth preservation tool?

The week’s most interesting data story

Bitcoin’s price potential

Bitcoin traders have locked their sights on $100K as the default end-of-year projection, with options activity showing a sharp pivot back to bullish territory. Following a tariff-induced price rebound, traders dumped protective puts and loaded up on $85K–$100K calls. The $100K strike now holds nearly $1.2B in open interest, making it the most popular bet on the platform that dominates global crypto options. Sentiment has shifted—and $100K is back on the map.

The numbers

Top 5 stats of the week

76% – U.S. crypto holders who say digital assets have had a positive impact on their lives.