Fed cuts build strong market momentum

In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:

• A key week for the Fed
• ETH approaches Pectra
• The biggest BTC optimists

Market cast 

Bitcoin and macro: а numbers-driven dynamic

As Bitcoin consolidates below $95,000 ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, technical signals continue to send mixed messages across timeframes. Momentum indicators remain in neutral territory on the weekly chart, reflecting a slowdown in bullish momentum. However, the daily chart presents a more constructive picture, with both the RSI and Stochastic indicators approaching overbought levels, while the MACD continues to trend above its signal line, suggesting underlying bullish sentiment remains intact.

A confirmed daily close above $96,000 would reinforce the case for a continued uptrend, with key resistance levels to watch at $98,500 and the psychologically significant $100,000 mark. On the downside, initial support is seen near $91,000, with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands providing potential dynamic support in the event of a pullback.

The big idea

Macro makes the market

While holding above $93,000 for much of the past week, Bitcoin’s latest rally stalled just shy of $98,000 after U.S. macro data threw cold water on the surge. The strong April jobs report – beating expectations with 177,000 new positions – helped cool hopes for near-term rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields higher and dragging BTC briefly under $95,000. But zoom out, and the message is clear: Bitcoin remains deeply linked to macro policy – and its next trend depends squarely on the Fed. Two scenarios are emerging:

If the Fed holds rates higher for longer, Bitcoin could benefit indirectly as global investors look to hedge exposure to high-rate regimes, recession risks, and dollar-driven volatility. Recent U.S.-China trade tensions have already triggered a mini “decoupling,” with BTC holding steady while stocks fell. This strengthened the view that Bitcoin is evolving into a low-beta, cross-border hedge, according to BlackRock’s Robert Mitchnick. Adding to the bullish sentiment, Bitcoin advocate Arthur Hayes declared“It’s time to go long everything”, citing expectations for more liquidity entering the system.

If the Fed signals cuts are coming, lower rates would likely reignite liquidity flows across risk assets – and BTC tends to outperform in early-rate-cut cycles. With funding costs down and real yields softening, Bitcoin could break through $99,000 resistance and resume its upward trend. That momentum is already being reflected in ETF flows, where spot Bitcoin ETFs have just marked another straight week of net inflows, adding $1.81B last week. 

The win-win case: Whether as digital gold in a high-rate world or as a high-octane liquidity asset in a cutting cycle, Bitcoin’s appeal is growing. Long-term holders are accumulating, ETF flows are steady, and its resilience during macro stress is quietly reshaping its narrative.

The next FOMC decision lands May 7. Powell’s tone – not just the rate decision – could decide whether Bitcoin stays stuck or starts its next move. Bitcoin and macroeconomics – that’s the Big Idea yet again.

Ethereum

ETH gets bullish (again) 

Just ahead of its most important upgrade of the year, Ethereum starts to flash more serious bullish signals. For a start, ETH has outperformed the broader market, rising to $1,842 as its taker buy-sell ratio hit a 30-day high of 1.08, per media reports, highlighting aggressive futures buying. Its Relative strength index (RSI) is climbing at 58, and the price remains above its 20-day Exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing short-term bullish momentum.

This technical strength sets the stage for Pectra, set to go live on May 7. The upgrade will raise validator limits, double Layer-2 data capacity, and introduce account abstraction, making wallets more powerful and user-friendly. Analysts at Nansen say Pectra will solidify Ethereum’s role as the data layer for rollup scaling, with media highlighting that a potential squeeze could spark volatility.

TradFi trends

Operation “buy Bitcoin”

Traditional finance is quietly cornering Bitcoin. As of May 1, public companies, ETFs, and private firms have acquired 192,925 BTC – 17% more than the total BTC expected to be mined in 2025. Public firms led with 107,155 BTC, followed by ETFs and private firms, absorbing nearly the entire new supply and tapping into existing reserves.

This mirrors 2024, when institutions acquired four times more BTC than was mined, signaling a lasting structural shift. More coins are being locked into long-term, low-turnover strategies on corporate balance sheets. Meanwhile, crypto allocations in institutional portfolios have hit 2.5%, a yearly high, with Bitcoin making up 63% of holdings.

Blockchain

Google Wallet goes crypto-style

Another quiet win for crypto: the tech stack that once protected blockchain wallets is about to safeguard your real one. Google has integrated Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKPs) into its Wallet app, allowing users to verify their age without revealing personal details – an innovation lifted straight from the cryptographic playbook of the crypto industry.

Long used in blockchain ecosystems like Ethereum and Zcash to secure transactions and protect user data, ZKPs are now powering Google’s push toward private digital IDs. The rollout starts in the UK, with the U.S. and other markets to follow. Google’s system uses a custom-built ZKP design, and the company plans to open-source the tools to encourage wider adoption.

Macroeconomic roundup

When macro moves, volatility follows?

Big week, big data, big impact – crypto’s on Fed watch, and every reading could jolt the charts:

• FOMC & Powell (Wed): No rate change expected, but tone is everything. Hawkish = dollar strength, bearish for BTC. Dovish = risk-on, BTC boost.
• Consumer Credit (Wed): A jump could dampen crypto demand; weakness may boost safe-haven flows.
• Trade Deficit (Thu): A wider gap may weaken USD and lift BTC.
• Jobless Claims (Thu): Rising claims may fuel BTC interest on recession fears.

The week’s most interesting data story

$300,000 by June? Someone’s feeling bullish

Judging by the chart below, someone out there is dreaming big, with the $300,000 call showing the second-highest open interest. It could be a little far-fetched, yet it perfectly captures the mood: markets are thawing, and optimism is creeping back in.

Onchain data analysis from Glassnode tells a more grounded story. Long-term holders are sitting tight, barely touching their stacks – even those who bought above $95,000. Profit-taking tends to kick in closer to $100K, meaning the next leg up might need to punch through some heavy resistance before liftoff. Call it cautious conviction on-chain… and full-blown euphoria in the options pit.

The numbers

Top 5 stats of the week

• $135,000+ – Projected BTC price in 100 days.
• $84 billion — Strategy’s capital raise target to keep buying Bitcoin.
• 60% — Odds of a Fed rate cut in June.
• $4.9 million — Brown University’s BTC exposure.
• 5 – Years until Ethereum could match Bitcoin’s simplicity, per Vitalik.

Hot topics

Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].